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Red150
48862.3
214753.4
413141.5
Blue166
683136.6
49252.2
944271.9
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions176167140160200220150166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+2Teleop
Endgame+10
Fouls+16
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave3
5Coral scored#2
24Coral points9
33Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +19
16Coral scored#19
57Coral points70
4Processor algae#5
8Net algae#8
24Processor points30
32Net points32
56Algae points62
113Total teleop132
Reef
7L4#8
9L3#6
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points6
150Total score166

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
488
#36
62.30.4
58.658.2
Auto12.7
Teleop47.2
End2.4
blue by 9.6
9442
#29
71.90.6
66.467.0
Auto15.6
Teleop53.7
End2.7
Second
2147
#40
53.40.4
47.346.9
Auto10.2
Teleop38.1
End5.2
red by 1.2
492
#12
52.20.6
43.944.5
Auto8.1
Teleop37.5
End6.6
Third
4131
#41
41.50.4
41.340.9
Auto7.3
Teleop27.7
End6.5
red by 4.9
6831
#38
36.60.6
32.833.4
Auto4.4
Teleop28.6
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
27%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
52%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsEarned