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Red199
703455.3
956731.0
131868.8
Blue158
451362.2
357430.4
445048.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions173158100200250300199158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+51Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
9Leave9
8Coral scored#1
38Coral points7
47Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +20
21Coral scored#18
76Coral points66
7Processor algae#2
5Net algae#10
42Processor points12
20Net points40
62Algae points52
138Total teleop118
Reef
11L4#6
8L3#4
7L2#6
3L1 · trough#3
41Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points0
199Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.82.1
68.570.6
Auto16.3
Teleop45.1
End7.4
red by 6.6
4513
#22
62.20.1
63.763.8
Auto7.9
Teleop42.3
End12.0
Second
7034
#18
55.32.1
49.151.2
Auto13.6
Teleop33.7
End8.0
red by 7.1
4450
#37
48.30.1
48.248.3
Auto8.6
Teleop34.1
End5.5
Third
9567
#21
31.02.1
29.531.6
Auto8.8
Teleop18.3
End4.0
red by 0.6
3574
#39
30.40.1
25.625.7
Auto5.5
Teleop17.9
End7.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
62%Coral oddsEarned39%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned