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Red245
214753.4
451260.7
142566.7
Blue228
413141.5
944271.9
293074.3
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions187214100150200250300245228

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+1
+17Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave9
12Coral scored#8
58Coral points38
58Total auto47
TeleoperatedBlue +12
23Coral scored#29
83Coral points105
6Processor algae#3
11Net algae#13
36Processor points18
44Net points52
80Algae points70
163Total teleop175
Reef
11L4#15
12L3#8
7L2#8
5L1 · trough#6
52Game pieces#53
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points0
245Total score228

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1425
#11
66.73.6
65.068.6
Auto20.2
Teleop38.0
End8.5
blue by 7.6
2930
#20
74.31.3
72.573.8
Auto21.0
Teleop43.1
End10.2
Second
4512
#13
60.73.6
56.259.8
Auto17.7
Teleop40.4
End2.5
blue by 11.2
9442
#29
71.91.3
71.172.3
Auto15.6
Teleop53.7
End2.7
Third
2147
#40
53.43.6
48.051.6
Auto10.2
Teleop38.1
End5.2
red by 11.9
4131
#41
41.51.3
42.443.6
Auto7.3
Teleop27.7
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
67%Coral oddsEarned75%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned92%Barge oddsMissed