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Red177
297630.3
241258.8
214753.4
Blue219
95767.2
247157.2
48862.3
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions148203100250177219

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
Teleop+20
Endgame+42
Fouls+42
AutonomousRed +8
9Leave3
6Coral scored#5
28Coral points26
37Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +28
25Coral scored#37
90Coral points134
3Processor algae#1
7Net algae#6
18Processor points6
28Net points24
46Algae points30
136Total teleop164
Reef
13L4#17
7L3#10
7L2#9
4L1 · trough#6
41Game pieces#49
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +42
0Foul points0
177Total score219

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2412
#24
58.81.9
57.859.7
Auto13.3
Teleop40.2
End5.3
blue by 8.3
957
#17
67.21.6
66.768.3
Auto16.6
Teleop39.6
End10.9
Second
2147
#40
53.41.9
51.653.4
Auto10.2
Teleop38.1
End5.2
blue by 8.9
488
#36
62.31.6
60.762.3
Auto12.7
Teleop47.2
End2.4
Third
2976
#48
30.31.9
28.530.3
Auto7.8
Teleop22.3
End0.3
blue by 26.9
2471
#16
57.21.6
56.558.1
Auto9.7
Teleop40.1
End7.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
55%Coral oddsMissed51%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
39%Barge oddsMissed92%Barge oddsEarned