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Red188
944271.9
99736.4
546879.7
Blue158
255754.7
293074.3
445048.3
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions212203100150250300188158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+22Auto
+28Teleop
+28Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +22
3Leave6
10Coral scored#5
48Coral points23
51Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +6
20Coral scored#27
73Coral points97
4Processor algae#1
6Net algae#3
24Processor points6
24Net points12
48Algae points18
121Total teleop115
Reef
12L4#16
10L3#5
5L2#8
3L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#36
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
2Foul points0
188Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5468
#19
79.70.7
81.580.8
Auto19.3
Teleop49.3
End11.0
red by 5.4
2930
#20
74.31.8
73.872.0
Auto21.0
Teleop43.1
End10.2
Second
9442
#29
71.90.7
72.371.6
Auto15.6
Teleop53.7
End2.7
red by 17.2
2557
#30
54.71.8
55.753.9
Auto7.5
Teleop41.5
End5.7
Third
997
#33
36.40.7
37.136.4
Auto8.4
Teleop27.5
End0.6
blue by 11.8
4450
#37
48.31.8
50.048.3
Auto8.6
Teleop34.1
End5.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
87%Coral oddsMissed78%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned