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Red228
945082.5
94845.9
177891.8
Blue219
204678.7
451362.2
366382.2
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions228241150200300350228219

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+34Auto
+29Teleop
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +34
9Leave6
11Coral scored#5
55Coral points24
64Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +5
29Coral scored#33
106Coral points117
4Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
24Processor points18
16Net points16
40Algae points34
146Total teleop151
Reef
12L4#16
12L3#8
8L2#9
8L1 · trough#5
48Game pieces#45
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +9
2Foul points2
228Total score219

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.80.2
90.790.9
Auto21.2
Teleop66.8
End3.9
red by 9.6
82.20.1
82.482.2
Auto19.6
Teleop51.9
End10.8
Second
9450
#15
82.50.2
81.381.5
Auto19.0
Teleop53.3
End10.2
red by 3.7
78.70.1
78.978.7
Auto17.8
Teleop51.7
End9.2
Third
948
#44
45.90.2
44.845.0
Auto9.1
Teleop31.1
End5.8
blue by 16.2
4513
#22
62.20.1
62.362.2
Auto7.9
Teleop42.3
End12.0