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Red141
495224.5
662218.7
336028.9
Blue73
940627.3
910217.5
82249.6
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5970020408010012014014173

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+6Teleop
+8Endgame
+68Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +2
7Coral scored#11
26Coral points38
3Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
18Processor points0
8Net points12
26Algae points12
52Total teleop50
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#4
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +68
60Foul points0
141Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3360
#15
28.91.3
23.825.0
Auto5.5
Teleop20.0
End3.4
red by 1.6
27.30.3
31.331.0
Auto4.2
Teleop17.8
End5.2
Second
4952
#17
24.51.3
14.716.0
Auto2.9
Teleop13.3
End8.3
red by 6.9
9102
#27
17.50.3
18.017.7
Auto3.5
Teleop11.9
End2.2
Third
6622
#23
18.71.3
13.815.0
Auto4.8
Teleop10.5
End3.4
red by 9.0
8224
#29
9.60.3
9.89.5
Auto3.0
Teleop4.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsMissed47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsEarned