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Red149
169947.0
1025431.8
633321.6
Blue104
115345.9
55823.3
500036.1
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions106110050150200250300149104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+45Teleop
+45Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
15Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +36
24Coral scored#18
88Coral points66
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
120Total teleop84
Reef
11L4#6
8L3#6
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#22
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
0Foul points0
149Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.04.1
38.943.0
Auto6.1
Teleop37.6
End3.4
red by 1.1
45.90.8
45.344.4
Auto6.4
Teleop31.4
End8.1
Second
31.82.4
25.027.4
Auto5.1
Teleop19.9
End6.8
blue by 4.3
5000
#16
36.11.0
25.524.6
Auto11.7
Teleop22.5
End1.9
Third
6333
#22
21.64.1
27.631.6
Auto3.3
Teleop16.1
End2.2
blue by 1.7
558
#35
23.31.0
23.722.7
Auto3.4
Teleop17.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsEarned