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Red146
176852.4
596218.6
19071.7
Blue117
111920.6
15133.8
287636.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1498550100200146117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+27Teleop
+37Endgame
+29Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave3
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points20
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +20
19Coral scored#14
70Coral points52
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#6
12Processor points6
20Net points24
32Algae points30
102Total teleop82
Reef
10L4#6
8L3#5
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#25
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +29
0Foul points8
146Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
190
#1
71.70.3
68.668.9
Auto18.3
Teleop45.0
End8.4
red by 35.3
2876
#12
36.40.5
35.536.0
Auto7.4
Teleop26.4
End2.6
Second
52.40.3
49.349.6
Auto7.7
Teleop37.7
End7.0
red by 18.6
151
#15
33.80.5
32.933.3
Auto6.7
Teleop26.8
End0.3
Third
5962
#37
18.60.3
15.515.8
Auto3.7
Teleop13.7
End1.2
blue by 1.9
1119
#34
20.60.5
19.620.1
Auto2.9
Teleop17.2
End0.5