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Red112
945611.5
880851.1
408744.5
Blue89
999442.8
998415.2
978729.8
87%Model gave it13%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12052010015020011289

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+5Teleop
+17Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave6
4Coral scored#2
22Coral points10
22Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +1
13Coral scored#13
48Coral points47
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
12Processor points6
8Net points16
20Algae points22
68Total teleop69
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#5
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
21Game pieces#20
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
6Foul points0
112Total score89

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8808
#10Sur
51.10.1
48.848.8
Auto9.6
Teleop38.9
End2.6
red by 8.4
9994
#5Sur
42.83.6
20.824.4
Auto9.4
Teleop31.0
End2.2
Second
44.50.1
42.842.7
Auto7.5
Teleop29.3
End7.7
red by 14.7
9787
#12
29.82.2
25.727.8
Auto3.6
Teleop19.9
End6.4
Third
9456
#22
11.50.1
15.115.1
Auto3.3
Teleop8.2
End0.1
blue by 3.7
9984
#27
15.23.6
10.013.6
Auto2.7
Teleop11.5
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsMissed