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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions943105015014331

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+86Teleop
+100Endgame
+112Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
0Leave6
6Coral scored#1
29Coral points3
29Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +66
15Coral scored#4
54Coral points14
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#0
12Processor points6
20Net points0
32Algae points6
86Total teleop20
Reef
9L4#2
5L3#1
5L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#6
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +112
12Foul points0
143Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.53.2
31.835.0
Auto10.2
Teleop35.5
End2.8
red by 24.6
24.00.5
17.817.2
Auto8.4
Teleop14.4
End1.2
Second
43.23.2
38.641.8
Auto5.4
Teleop35.0
End2.8
red by 30.3
12.90.5
8.27.7
Auto3.5
Teleop8.8
End0.6
Third
1319
#14
19.83.2
9.212.4
Auto7.5
Teleop9.7
End2.6
red by 11.2
4083
#32
8.60.5
10.19.6
Auto0.9
Teleop6.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned3%Barge oddsMissed