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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions585840801007651

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+13Teleop
+13Endgame
+25Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave0
1Coral scored#3
7Coral points13
13Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +13
8Coral scored#7
27Coral points26
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
6Processor points6
16Net points4
22Algae points10
49Total teleop36
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#3
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#12
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
12Foul points0
76Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.90.7
27.127.8
Auto11.1
Teleop25.9
End1.8
red by 1.3
281
#7
37.60.2
32.131.8
Auto5.9
Teleop31.2
End0.6
Second
1758
#13
25.90.7
17.518.2
Auto4.4
Teleop20.7
End0.8
red by 9.1
1293
#28
16.90.2
12.612.4
Auto3.0
Teleop9.9
End3.9
Third
13.60.7
9.19.8
Auto3.5
Teleop7.3
End2.9
red by 5.0
4083
#32
8.60.2
9.69.4
Auto0.9
Teleop6.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed9%Barge oddsMissed