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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions935001507582

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+3
Endgame+7
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
4Coral points7
10Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +3
11Coral scored#12
41Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
65Total teleop62
Reef
5L4#4
3L3#5
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
0Foul points0
75Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.20.5
41.240.7
Auto5.4
Teleop35.0
End2.8
red by 4.3
38.91.9
31.933.9
Auto11.1
Teleop25.9
End1.8
Second
281
#7
37.60.5
35.334.8
Auto5.9
Teleop31.2
End0.6
red by 24.8
12.81.9
11.613.6
Auto4.0
Teleop7.3
End1.5
Third
1539
#34
6.40.5
5.85.3
Auto0.8
Teleop5.1
End0.4
blue by 5.2
8137
#33
11.51.9
9.611.5
Auto2.6
Teleop7.0
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed