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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions94640501508090

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
Teleop+6
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave3
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points13
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +16
12Coral scored#11
44Coral points40
1Processor algae#3
1Net algae#3
6Processor points18
4Net points12
10Algae points30
54Total teleop70
Reef
5L4#5
6L3#4
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
80Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4451
#11
55.40.2
52.352.1
Auto11.5
Teleop42.4
End1.5
red by 14.1
342
#12
41.31.7
35.337.0
Auto4.0
Teleop33.7
End3.5
Second
24.00.2
23.323.1
Auto8.4
Teleop14.4
End1.2
blue by 4.3
3489
#16
28.31.7
23.024.7
Auto4.3
Teleop22.8
End1.2
Third
1539
#34
6.40.2
7.47.2
Auto0.8
Teleop5.1
End0.4
blue by 0.9
3976
#31
7.31.7
6.07.8
Auto2.1
Teleop3.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsMissed28%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed12%Barge oddsMissed