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Red118
513034.9
486432.7
175824.2
Blue109
349051.3
636633.8
708514.7
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions858575809095100105110118109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+17Teleop
+9Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
3Leave6
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
15Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +8
17Coral scored#17
61Coral points61
1Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
6Processor points6
20Net points12
26Algae points18
87Total teleop79
Reef
7L4#5
6L3#5
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points0
118Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5130
#15
34.92.8
25.228.0
Auto4.6
Teleop28.9
End1.4
blue by 16.3
3490
#2Sur
51.32.0
35.837.9
Auto7.3
Teleop35.9
End8.2
Second
4864
#12Sur
32.72.8
24.026.8
Auto8.8
Teleop17.8
End6.1
blue by 1.1
33.82.0
28.030.1
Auto4.9
Teleop20.6
End8.4
Third
1758
#17
24.22.8
27.330.1
Auto1.9
Teleop21.2
End1.1
red by 9.4
7085
#24
14.72.0
14.416.5
Auto3.5
Teleop8.7
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned