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Red125
34248.0
105134.1
616737.2
Blue107
128752.5
813717.9
1061917.6
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1378750100150200125107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+4
+12Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave3
4Coral scored#4
19Coral points20
19Total auto23
Teleoperatedlevel
13Coral scored#12
46Coral points42
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
74Total teleop74
Reef
6L4#6
4L3#5
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#23
BargeRed +16
26Cage & park10
26Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
6Foul points0
125Total score107

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
342
#7
48.00.3
43.844.2
Auto4.3
Teleop40.5
End3.1
blue by 4.5
1287
#19
52.52.0
49.151.1
Auto11.4
Teleop38.9
End2.1
Second
37.20.3
36.136.5
Auto5.6
Teleop22.3
End9.4
red by 19.3
8137
#26
17.92.0
11.813.9
Auto3.9
Teleop10.3
End3.7
Third
34.10.3
28.128.5
Auto9.6
Teleop17.6
End6.9
red by 16.4
17.62.0
12.514.5
Auto3.7
Teleop10.7
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed