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Red129
857543.4
931511.8
110250.9
Blue182
445170.3
28144.2
1059916.7
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10612950150200129182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+19
Endgame+19
Fouls+53
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave3
7Coral scored#7
36Coral points34
36Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +18
16Coral scored#18
59Coral points63
3Processor algae#4
3Net algae#5
18Processor points24
12Net points20
30Algae points44
89Total teleop107
Reef
7L4#10
6L3#6
6L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#34
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +53
2Foul points36
129Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.91.3
42.443.7
Auto14.8
Teleop34.9
End1.2
blue by 19.4
70.31.5
64.065.4
Auto15.5
Teleop53.0
End1.8
Second
8575
#13
43.41.3
43.544.7
Auto8.6
Teleop32.6
End2.1
blue by 0.8
281
#10
44.21.5
40.441.9
Auto8.2
Teleop34.2
End1.8
Third
9315
#28
11.81.3
13.514.7
Auto3.7
Teleop6.3
End1.8
blue by 4.8
16.71.5
11.613.0
Auto5.0
Teleop9.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed