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Red90
122512.5
999816.8
445155.5
Blue58
281537.6
81376.2
999513.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions946602003004005006009058

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+50Teleop
+40Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
0Leave0
7Coral scored#1
33Coral points6
33Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +23
10Coral scored#5
37Coral points18
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
51Total teleop28
Reef
7L4#2
4L3#2
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
0Foul points8
90Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.50.3
60.560.7
Auto12.8
Teleop40.4
End2.4
red by 17.9
37.61.3
40.939.6
Auto8.6
Teleop20.3
End8.8
Second
9998
#12
16.80.4
11.712.1
Auto6.0
Teleop7.6
End3.0
red by 3.4
9995
#27
13.42.1
15.313.1
Auto0.9
Teleop9.7
End2.7
Third
1225
#17
12.50.3
13.914.1
Auto3.8
Teleop7.6
End1.1
red by 6.2
8137
#20
6.21.3
13.111.8
Auto1.8
Teleop1.6
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsEarned