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Red38
128730.0
813712.8
408311.1
Blue22
513016.9
1059912.3
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions53540204060801003822

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+20Teleop
+16Endgame
+16Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +20
8Coral scored#2
28Coral points8
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
32Total teleop12
Reef
2L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points0
38Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.01.3
25.324.0
Auto3.6
Teleop24.3
End2.1
red by 13.1
5130
#21
16.92.6
17.114.5
Auto4.3
Teleop10.9
End1.8
Second
8137
#15
12.81.3
12.110.8
Auto3.4
Teleop6.8
End2.6
red by 0.5
12.32.6
16.614.0
Auto2.9
Teleop7.8
End1.5
Third
4083
#28
11.11.3
12.110.8
Auto2.3
Teleop8.5
End0.3
red by 3.9
7.12.6
11.59.0
Auto3.0
Teleop2.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed