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Red30
281520.7
348915.3
Blue40
349024.9
105119.5
496731.7
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74900501502002503040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+6
Endgame+16
Fouls+10
Autonomouslevel
6Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +6
3Coral scored#4
10Coral points16
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
14Total teleop20
Reef
1L4#2
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
6Foul points0
30Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2815
#17
20.74.7
22.718.0
Auto6.2
Teleop13.1
End1.5
blue by 11.0
31.74.1
32.628.4
Auto5.6
Teleop24.7
End1.3
Second
3489
#35
15.34.7
25.821.1
Auto4.3
Teleop10.2
End0.7
blue by 9.6
3490
#13
24.94.1
23.219.1
Auto4.2
Teleop14.3
End6.5
Third
7.15.3
18.513.1
Auto3.0
Teleop2.8
End1.4
blue by 12.4
1051
#16
19.54.1
21.517.4
Auto5.5
Teleop11.2
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsEarned