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Red134
84153.3
947044.9
879337.6
Blue91
198331.7
76645.4
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14959010020013491

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+29Teleop
+45Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave0
8Coral scored#4
39Coral points22
39Total auto22
TeleoperatedRed +12
14Coral scored#10
51Coral points35
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
75Total teleop63
Reef
6L4#4
6L3#5
6L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#20
BargeRed +16
20Cage & park4
20Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points2
134Total score91

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
841
#6
53.30.2
51.151.3
Auto11.9
Teleop33.9
End7.5
red by 7.9
766
#13
45.41.3
41.442.7
Auto7.7
Teleop30.7
End7.1
Second
9470
#10
44.90.2
43.343.4
Auto12.1
Teleop29.7
End3.1
red by 13.2
1983
#18
31.71.3
26.928.2
Auto6.6
Teleop25.4
End-0.3
Third
8793
#23
37.60.2
37.337.4
Auto11.1
Teleop22.5
End4.0
red by 32.0
5.61.3
1.32.6
Auto2.9
Teleop1.8
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
39%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed