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Red77
11534.6
623844.1
592423.6
Blue118
947044.9
696239.6
900123.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1391105010015020077118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+59
Endgame+47
Fouls+41
AutonomousBlue +11
6Leave0
2Coral scored#5
10Coral points27
16Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +48
8Coral scored#15
29Coral points53
1Processor algae#3
1Net algae#4
6Processor points18
4Net points16
10Algae points34
39Total teleop87
Reef
4L4#8
3L3#6
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#3
12Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +41
6Foul points0
77Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6238
#17
44.13.8
61.157.3
Auto6.4
Teleop28.6
End9.0
blue by 0.8
9470
#10
44.90.8
50.851.6
Auto12.1
Teleop29.7
End3.1
Second
115
#25
34.63.8
36.332.6
Auto5.6
Teleop24.8
End4.1
blue by 5.0
6962
#11
39.60.8
36.337.1
Auto9.1
Teleop28.4
End2.1
Third
5924
#14
23.63.8
30.126.3
Auto8.6
Teleop13.0
End2.0
red by 0.2
9001
#19
23.41.4
18.519.9
Auto4.4
Teleop18.9
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed31%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
79%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed