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Red138
426544.8
584764.6
332434.1
Blue21
463018.1
1013714.4
1026912.8
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1233505010015020013821

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+123Teleop
+125Endgame
+117Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave3
5Coral scored#1
27Coral points6
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +99
22Coral scored#0
79Coral points0
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
12Processor points0
8Net points0
20Algae points0
99Total teleop0
Reef
8L4#1
9L3#0
7L2#0
3L1 · trough#0
31Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +117
0Foul points8
138Total score21

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.62.2
49.551.8
Auto13.2
Teleop49.2
End2.2
red by 46.4
4630
#38
18.13.3
12.49.2
Auto6.2
Teleop9.7
End2.2
Second
44.82.2
32.534.7
Auto11.3
Teleop27.8
End5.7
red by 30.4
14.43.3
15.512.3
Auto6.2
Teleop6.1
End2.1
Third
3324
#15
34.12.2
22.524.7
Auto7.1
Teleop27.4
End-0.4
red by 21.4
12.83.3
14.511.3
Auto4.8
Teleop5.5
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed