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Red67
313920.8
1047957.7
574419.0
Blue39
384328.3
1010117.0
581619.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions655101001502006739

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+22Teleop
+22Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave6
1Coral scored#1
4Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +18
8Coral scored#4
28Coral points14
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
42Total teleop24
Reef
3L4#2
2L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
6Foul points0
67Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.70.3
34.434.7
Auto11.7
Teleop38.5
End7.5
red by 29.4
3843
#14Sur
28.30.5
13.913.4
Auto5.1
Teleop17.5
End5.7
Second
3139
#36Sur
20.80.2
13.914.1
Auto3.7
Teleop14.8
End2.3
red by 1.1
5816
#33
19.70.5
17.316.8
Auto5.0
Teleop14.8
End-0.1
Third
5744
#27
19.00.4
9.09.4
Auto3.8
Teleop11.5
End3.7
red by 2.0
17.00.5
15.414.9
Auto2.6
Teleop10.9
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
29%Auto oddsMissed23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed