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Red126
261445.4
332434.1
2137.1
Blue136
349229.6
393765.1
446753.2
8%Model gave it92%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10615950200250126136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+2Teleop
Endgame+8
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave9
4Coral scored#4
20Coral points21
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +9
21Coral scored#20
77Coral points72
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
99Total teleop90
Reef
11L4#9
5L3#6
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points2
126Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2614
#20
45.41.4
41.542.9
Auto11.4
Teleop29.6
End4.4
blue by 19.7
3937
#18
65.10.6
60.860.1
Auto12.0
Teleop44.5
End8.6
Second
21
#16
37.11.4
33.735.1
Auto8.9
Teleop20.8
End7.4
blue by 16.1
53.20.6
44.643.9
Auto12.5
Teleop33.7
End7.0
Third
3324
#15
34.11.4
24.225.7
Auto7.1
Teleop27.4
End-0.4
red by 4.5
3492
#23
29.60.6
32.131.5
Auto5.7
Teleop23.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed68%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
70%Barge oddsMissed72%Barge oddsEarned