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Qual 552025 Smoky Mountains Regional
Red117
504519.9
80151.3
332434.1
Blue153
450416.2
396648.9
402073.2
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10714850200250117153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
Teleop+30
Endgame+34
Fouls+36
AutonomousBlue +15
0Leave6
6Coral scored#8
29Coral points38
29Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +15
16Coral scored#20
56Coral points73
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
18Processor points12
12Net points16
30Algae points28
86Total teleop101
Reef
9L4#9
5L3#10
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#5
28Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +36
0Foul points2
117Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
801
#26
51.30.7
50.2→50.9
Auto14.2
Teleop34.4
End2.7
blue by 21.9
4020
#2
73.20.7
71.4→72.1
Auto22.1
Teleop43.7
End7.4
Second
3324
#15
34.10.7
27.2→27.9
Auto7.1
Teleop27.4
End-0.4
blue by 14.8
3966
#11
48.90.7
39.3→40.0
Auto12.4
Teleop33.0
End3.6
Third
5045
#42
19.90.7
16.7→17.5
Auto4.6
Teleop13.9
End1.4
red by 3.7
4504
#46
16.21.2
15.4→16.6
Auto3.0
Teleop12.9
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed38%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed69%Barge oddsMissed