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Red154
402073.2
426544.8
53817.6
Blue131
446753.2
574419.0
406550.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions152119100200250154131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+19Teleop
+21Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave3
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points27
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +12
21Coral scored#13
77Coral points45
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
6Processor points18
16Net points24
22Algae points42
99Total teleop87
Reef
12L4#8
8L3#4
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
2Foul points0
154Total score131

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.20.8
72.173.0
Auto22.1
Teleop43.7
End7.4
red by 19.9
53.20.8
46.147.0
Auto12.5
Teleop33.7
End7.0
Second
44.80.8
42.243.0
Auto11.3
Teleop27.8
End5.7
blue by 5.4
4065
#13
50.20.8
45.045.8
Auto15.1
Teleop29.1
End6.0
Third
538
#32
17.60.8
16.116.9
Auto3.5
Teleop12.3
End1.8
blue by 1.4
5744
#27
19.01.2
16.117.3
Auto3.8
Teleop11.5
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
43%Coral oddsEarned14%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
59%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned