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Red45
463018.1
966814.5
430614.2
Blue129
500236.7
313920.8
504519.9
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6090020408010012014016045129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+46
Endgame+48
Fouls+84
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +43
6Coral scored#15
22Coral points55
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
0Processor points6
8Net points12
8Algae points18
30Total teleop73
Reef
3L4#6
2L3#5
1L2#4
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +84
2Foul points38
45Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4630
#38
18.12.4
19.016.6
Auto6.2
Teleop9.7
End2.2
blue by 18.6
5002
#17
36.70.4
36.737.1
Auto7.8
Teleop24.7
End4.3
Second
9668
#34
14.51.6
17.115.5
Auto2.5
Teleop11.0
End1.1
blue by 6.3
3139
#36
20.80.4
16.316.7
Auto3.7
Teleop14.8
End2.3
Third
4306
#44
14.22.4
17.314.9
Auto3.7
Teleop9.2
End1.3
blue by 5.6
5045
#42
19.90.4
18.619.0
Auto4.6
Teleop13.9
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsMissed58%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed