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Qual 762025 Smoky Mountains Regional
Red136
748324.3
393765.1
350438.0
Blue81
857063.3
349229.6
581619.7
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions139130010020030040013681

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+43Teleop
+55Endgame
+55Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
9Leave3
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points14
33Total auto17
TeleoperatedRed +27
15Coral scored#11
53Coral points40
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
18Processor points12
16Net points8
34Algae points20
87Total teleop60
Reef
8L4#5
5L3#4
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#18
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +55
0Foul points0
136Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3937
#18
65.10.8
64.6→65.3
Auto12.0
Teleop44.5
End8.6
red by 1.8
8570
#10
63.32.7
66.5→63.8
Auto13.8
Teleop39.4
End10.1
Second
3504
#8
38.00.8
36.3→37.1
Auto11.2
Teleop22.0
End4.9
red by 8.4
3492
#23
29.62.7
32.8→30.1
Auto5.7
Teleop23.2
End0.7
Third
7483
#25
24.30.8
23.6→24.3
Auto5.6
Teleop16.2
End2.5
red by 4.6
5816
#33
19.72.7
22.4→19.7
Auto5.0
Teleop14.8
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
37%Coral oddsMissed58%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed