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Red117
947914.3
856115.2
805812.0
Blue26
902931.0
94674.3
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2843020608010011726

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+27Teleop
+29Endgame
+91Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
8Coral scored#3
27Coral points9
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
6Processor points0
0Net points4
6Algae points4
33Total teleop13
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +91
62Foul points0
117Total score26

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8561
#10
15.22.7
12.315.0
Auto3.8
Teleop9.4
End1.9
blue by 15.8
31.01.3
26.725.3
Auto9.0
Teleop20.3
End1.7
Second
9479
#13
14.32.7
9.512.3
Auto4.7
Teleop8.7
End0.9
red by 6.0
8.31.3
7.76.4
Auto2.6
Teleop4.0
End1.7
Third
8058
#18
12.01.8
6.88.6
Auto2.8
Teleop7.6
End1.6
red by 7.7
9467
#20
4.31.3
4.33.0
Auto2.1
Teleop0.8
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed