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Red26
698812.2
705015.2
907711.9
Blue38
1020224.2
958313.6
950210.9
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions504501001502002638

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+18
Endgame+12
Fouls+12
Autonomouslevel
0Leave6
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +18
3Coral scored#5
10Coral points18
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
14Total teleop32
Reef
2L4#2
0L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#8
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
0Foul points0
26Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7050
#29
15.22.0
14.812.8
Auto2.7
Teleop10.2
End2.4
blue by 9.0
24.20.4
17.116.7
Auto4.2
Teleop18.8
End1.2
Second
6988
#34
12.22.0
14.012.0
Auto3.5
Teleop7.0
End1.6
blue by 1.5
9583
#33
13.60.3
11.311.1
Auto3.9
Teleop7.6
End2.1
Third
9077
#41
11.92.0
15.213.2
Auto3.5
Teleop6.7
End1.7
red by 1.0
9502
#46
10.90.4
12.812.4
Auto2.2
Teleop6.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsMissed27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed