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Red58
698812.2
1054213.3
290516.2
Blue34
879811.7
1041511.6
907024.2
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions494820304060705834

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+16Teleop
+18Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave3
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +7
6Coral scored#5
20Coral points17
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
6Processor points6
8Net points4
14Algae points10
34Total teleop27
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
6Foul points0
58Total score34

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2905
#27
16.20.3
14.614.9
Auto3.8
Teleop10.2
End2.2
blue by 8.1
9070
#16
24.21.5
16.615.2
Auto2.5
Teleop19.8
End1.9
Second
13.30.4
16.416.8
Auto4.0
Teleop7.7
End1.6
red by 1.6
8798
#49DQ
11.71.5
13.111.6
Auto2.4
Teleop7.6
End1.7
Third
6988
#34
12.20.4
12.012.4
Auto3.5
Teleop7.0
End1.6
red by 0.5
11.61.5
11.610.1
Auto1.6
Teleop8.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed