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Red69
950210.9
1054213.3
683839.4
Blue30
1054912.5
1032111.5
1039626.1
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions776001001502006930

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+35Teleop
+35Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave3
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
17Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +21
8Coral scored#4
30Coral points15
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
44Total teleop23
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
14Game pieces#6
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
4Foul points0
69Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.40.1
33.533.4
Auto10.6
Teleop27.6
End1.3
red by 13.3
26.12.2
17.315.1
Auto5.1
Teleop20.0
End1.1
Second
13.34.4
13.317.7
Auto4.0
Teleop7.7
End1.6
red by 0.7
12.52.7
12.515.3
Auto3.0
Teleop8.6
End0.9
Third
9502
#46DQ
10.90.1
14.714.6
Auto2.2
Teleop6.9
End1.7
blue by 0.6
11.53.8
11.515.3
Auto4.2
Teleop4.8
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed