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Red84
855723.6
1060425.7
641726.3
Blue25
1044513.5
923215.7
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions61622040801008425

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+43Teleop
+57Endgame
+59Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave3
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points3
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +33
9Coral scored#4
32Coral points13
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
50Total teleop17
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
16Game pieces#6
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +59
2Foul points0
84Total score25

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6417
#10
26.33.2
19.622.8
Auto6.3
Teleop14.0
End5.9
red by 10.6
9232
#12
15.73.3
17.314.0
Auto3.9
Teleop11.5
End0.3
Second
25.73.2
15.618.8
Auto5.7
Teleop17.7
End2.3
red by 12.2
13.53.3
19.616.3
Auto3.6
Teleop6.9
End2.9
Third
8557
#21
23.63.2
17.720.9
Auto4.5
Teleop16.8
End2.2
red by 13.8
9.83.3
15.011.7
Auto1.3
Teleop8.1
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
51%Auto oddsMissed45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed