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Red44
805810.6
815113.9
956510.2
Blue45
855723.6
703510.6
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions28460204060801004445

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+3
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points10
6Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +1
6Coral scored#5
22Coral points17
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
0Processor points0
4Net points8
4Algae points8
26Total teleop25
Reef
2L4#3
2L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
6Foul points6
44Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8151
#22
13.91.0
9.810.8
Auto5.6
Teleop6.9
End1.4
blue by 9.7
8557
#21
23.60.4
20.420.0
Auto4.5
Teleop16.8
End2.2
Second
8058
#32
10.61.0
9.110.1
Auto2.4
Teleop6.6
End1.6
Level
7035
#30
10.60.4
12.111.7
Auto2.2
Teleop7.5
End1.0
Third
9565
#40
10.21.0
10.111.1
Auto0.1
Teleop9.1
End1.0
red by 0.4
9.80.4
9.79.3
Auto2.2
Teleop5.7
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsEarned