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Red145
958314.2
948371.1
683833.5
Blue77
1046515.7
1059819.8
1042837.0
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11954010015014577

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+44Teleop
+52Endgame
+68Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave3
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points13
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +23
12Coral scored#11
42Coral points41
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
12Processor points6
24Net points8
36Algae points14
78Total teleop55
Reef
8L4#5
6L3#3
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#17
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +68
16Foul points0
145Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.12.8
58.461.1
Auto17.7
Teleop47.2
End6.1
red by 34.0
37.02.0
33.235.2
Auto10.8
Teleop24.3
End1.9
Second
33.52.8
31.434.1
Auto7.6
Teleop24.6
End1.3
red by 13.6
19.82.0
12.114.1
Auto4.9
Teleop10.2
End4.8
Third
9583
#15
14.22.8
12.715.4
Auto5.3
Teleop6.8
End2.1
blue by 1.6
15.72.0
12.414.4
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed