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Red43
944116.9
94514.1
774215.5
Blue21
64159.8
1050211.8
85006.5
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4561020801004321

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+18Teleop
+20Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +15
5Coral scored#1
17Coral points4
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
6Processor points0
0Net points4
6Algae points4
23Total teleop8
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#2
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
2Foul points0
43Total score21

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
16.90.1
15.315.2
Auto3.9
Teleop10.0
End3.0
red by 5.0
11.83.4
17.714.2
Auto4.1
Teleop5.7
End2.0
Second
7742
#26
15.50.0
12.812.7
Auto4.3
Teleop10.4
End0.8
red by 5.7
6415
#40
9.83.4
15.912.5
Auto1.2
Teleop7.1
End1.5
Third
9451
#28
4.10.1
13.413.4
Auto2.7
Teleop0.3
End1.1
blue by 2.3
8500
#49
6.53.4
18.314.9
Auto2.0
Teleop3.8
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed