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Red44
774816.4
1024310.2
880010.5
Blue68
1042513.0
815323.9
815810.1
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46450204060804468

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+2Teleop
Endgame+2
Fouls+24
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points12
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +5
6Coral scored#6
21Coral points20
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
31Total teleop26
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#1
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#9
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +24
2Foul points24
44Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7748
#38Sur
16.40.0
18.918.9
Auto4.3
Teleop11.5
End0.5
blue by 7.6
8153
#21
23.90.3
15.816.1
Auto5.5
Teleop17.2
End1.2
Second
8800
#37
10.50.0
12.112.1
Auto1.3
Teleop8.0
End1.3
blue by 2.5
10425
#17Sur
13.00.3
12.813.1
Auto3.8
Teleop8.2
End1.0
Third
10.20.0
10.810.8
Auto3.2
Teleop5.4
End1.6
red by 0.2
8158
#32
10.10.3
12.813.1
Auto2.9
Teleop4.6
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed