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Red36
926414.7
1059817.7
Blue37
64159.8
954510.8
91855.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions533702060803637

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+17Teleop
+21Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +11
3Coral scored#1
12Coral points5
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
16Total teleop5
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#2
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
2Foul points24
36Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
17.70.8
18.617.8
Auto4.3
Teleop6.5
End6.9
red by 6.9
9545
#39
10.82.5
15.112.6
Auto2.8
Teleop7.2
End0.7
Second
9264
#22
14.71.4
16.915.5
Auto5.3
Teleop7.2
End2.2
red by 4.8
6415
#40
9.82.5
14.311.8
Auto1.2
Teleop7.1
End1.5
Third
7.91.4
10.89.5
Auto2.1
Teleop4.8
End1.0
red by 2.8
9185
#42
5.02.5
6.13.6
Auto2.3
Teleop0.4
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsEarned19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed