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Red47
880010.5
81739.7
1024411.2
Blue20
94514.1
1038315.5
954510.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions463901001504720

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+3
Endgame+1
+27Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
9Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +3
2Coral scored#1
6Coral points5
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
6Total teleop9
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#1
3Game pieces#4
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
28Foul points0
47Total score20

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
11.21.5
12.611.1
Auto2.8
Teleop5.4
End3.0
blue by 4.3
15.51.8
17.515.7
Auto3.1
Teleop10.1
End2.3
Second
8800
#37
10.52.5
14.011.5
Auto1.3
Teleop8.0
End1.3
blue by 0.2
9545
#39
10.81.8
9.37.5
Auto2.8
Teleop7.2
End0.7
Third
8173
#19
9.72.5
12.19.6
Auto3.3
Teleop5.6
End0.7
red by 5.6
9451
#28
4.11.8
6.95.1
Auto2.7
Teleop0.3
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed