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Red75
603817.4
91855.0
915523.2
Blue8
85006.5
944012.9
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions474910203040607080758

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+31Teleop
+47Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +28
6Coral scored#0
22Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
6Processor points0
0Net points0
6Algae points0
28Total teleop0
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#1
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +67
22Foul points2
75Total score8

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9155
#12
23.21.3
22.223.5
Auto3.7
Teleop16.3
End3.2
red by 10.3
9440
#29
12.93.9
16.512.7
Auto1.9
Teleop7.8
End3.2
Second
6038
#20
17.41.3
15.616.9
Auto6.5
Teleop6.6
End4.3
red by 9.7
7.83.9
12.68.7
Auto3.6
Teleop4.1
End0.1
Third
9185
#42
5.01.3
3.24.6
Auto2.3
Teleop0.4
End2.3
blue by 1.4
8500
#49
6.53.9
11.67.7
Auto2.0
Teleop3.8
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
19%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed