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Red56
577316.4
1006411.0
Blue15
774212.3
92474.5
60646.5
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions565515304045505615

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+11Teleop
+13Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +8
3Coral scored#2
10Coral points6
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
14Total teleop6
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#2
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
30Foul points2
56Total score15

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5773
#34
16.42.7
16.814.1
Auto2.9
Teleop12.6
End0.9
red by 4.1
7742
#24
12.34.3
13.08.7
Auto3.4
Teleop8.3
End0.6
Second
11.02.7
16.113.3
Auto2.4
Teleop7.1
End1.5
red by 4.5
6064
#37
6.54.3
20.816.5
Auto2.9
Teleop3.3
End0.3
Third
5.72.7
15.212.5
Auto2.1
Teleop2.5
End1.1
red by 1.2
9247
#48
4.54.3
14.610.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop2.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed