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Red165
949249.5
541162.7
521224.5
Blue106
331042.1
586619.0
246851.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1271056080120140160180200165106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+51Teleop
+61Endgame
+59Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave3
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points13
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +41
24Coral scored#19
85Coral points70
4Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
24Processor points6
16Net points8
40Algae points14
125Total teleop84
Reef
11L4#8
9L3#6
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#25
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +59
0Foul points2
165Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.73.0
51.554.5
Auto14.7
Teleop39.0
End9.1
red by 11.7
51.10.0
36.336.4
Auto6.1
Teleop38.5
End6.4
Second
49.53.0
38.241.2
Auto9.6
Teleop32.6
End7.4
red by 7.4
3310
#12
42.10.0
36.736.8
Auto8.7
Teleop26.5
End6.8
Third
5212
#16
24.53.0
18.922.0
Auto3.2
Teleop20.5
End0.8
red by 5.5
5866
#24
19.00.0
19.219.2
Auto4.0
Teleop10.5
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsMissed