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Red149
636979.1
840813.8
697423.8
Blue103
754021.0
116432.7
949249.5
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1218550100150149103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+42Teleop
+54Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave6
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points10
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +28
16Coral scored#14
57Coral points49
3Processor algae#3
7Net algae#2
18Processor points18
28Net points8
46Algae points26
103Total teleop75
Reef
9L4#4
7L3#4
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#21
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points8
149Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.12.2
68.270.4
Auto19.8
Teleop47.1
End12.2
red by 29.6
49.50.2
41.241.3
Auto9.6
Teleop32.6
End7.4
Second
6974
#14
23.82.2
15.617.8
Auto3.1
Teleop17.1
End3.6
blue by 8.9
1164
#10
32.70.2
23.323.5
Auto6.7
Teleop24.7
End1.4
Third
8408
#20
13.82.2
11.113.3
Auto4.5
Teleop6.9
End2.4
blue by 7.2
7540
#34
21.00.2
9.59.7
Auto2.8
Teleop16.0
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned49%Barge oddsMissed