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Red49
754012.9
914027.5
801920.1
Blue45
572615.6
582921.1
862512.9
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions724302060801001204945

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+2Teleop
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +7
8Coral scored#8
27Coral points28
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
31Total teleop38
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#3
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#10
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
49Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9140
#10
27.52.4
23.220.7
Auto3.2
Teleop23.2
End1.1
red by 6.4
5829
#33
21.10.4
20.620.2
Auto3.9
Teleop14.3
End2.9
Second
20.12.4
19.917.5
Auto4.0
Teleop13.9
End2.1
red by 4.4
5726
#26
15.60.4
9.59.1
Auto2.2
Teleop12.0
End1.4
Third
7540
#12
12.92.4
15.813.4
Auto3.7
Teleop7.5
End1.6
Level
8625
#24
12.90.4
8.07.6
Auto2.4
Teleop6.8
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed