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Red56
356119.3
510318.9
61558.8
Blue17
37437.5
69018.7
754012.9
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions394302060801005617

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+35Teleop
+39Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +38
8Coral scored#2
28Coral points6
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
12Processor points0
4Net points0
16Algae points0
44Total teleop6
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
11Game pieces#2
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points0
56Total score17

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3561
#18
19.31.6
13.615.2
Auto1.0
Teleop15.5
End2.7
red by 6.4
7540
#12
12.91.8
14.913.2
Auto3.7
Teleop7.5
End1.6
Second
5103
#16
18.91.6
15.116.7
Auto3.8
Teleop13.0
End2.0
red by 10.1
6901
#15
8.71.8
11.29.4
Auto3.3
Teleop3.8
End1.6
Third
6155
#22
8.81.6
6.68.2
Auto2.5
Teleop4.8
End1.5
red by 1.3
3743
#37
7.51.8
7.76.0
Auto2.9
Teleop4.2
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsMissed43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed