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Red109
711510.6
23149.4
507016.6
Blue39
664513.6
761618.2
952113.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9145020608010012014016010939

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+50Teleop
+60Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave6
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points3
15Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +44
11Coral scored#5
38Coral points18
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
18Processor points6
12Net points0
30Algae points6
68Total teleop24
Reef
3L4#2
5L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#7
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
10Foul points0
109Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
231
#8
49.40.9
44.545.4
Auto8.6
Teleop32.1
End8.7
red by 31.2
7616
#17
18.21.0
19.518.5
Auto4.3
Teleop11.0
End2.9
Second
5070
#20
16.60.9
17.018.0
Auto3.9
Teleop9.6
End3.1
red by 3.0
9521
#30
13.61.0
12.911.9
Auto1.7
Teleop9.8
End2.1
Third
7115
#22
10.60.9
8.89.8
Auto3.2
Teleop6.3
End1.2
blue by 2.9
6645
#33
13.61.0
10.19.0
Auto3.0
Teleop7.8
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsMissed