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Qual 292025 FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division
Red178
436419.9
636982.6
949257.5
Blue180
41859.7
271462.7
817740.7
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165154100200250178180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+20Teleop
Endgame+2
Fouls+2
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave9
8Coral scored#8
40Coral points38
40Total auto47
TeleoperatedRed +27
25Coral scored#16
90Coral points59
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
18Processor points18
16Net points20
34Algae points38
124Total teleop97
Reef
12L4#12
8L3#4
6L2#5
7L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +22
14Cage & park36
14Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
0Foul points0
178Total score180

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6369
#4
82.61.5
79.7→81.2
Auto22.2
Teleop51.9
End8.5
red by 19.9
2714
#8
62.72.3
59.6→61.9
Auto13.6
Teleop41.9
End7.1
Second
9492
#16
57.51.5
53.3→54.8
Auto13.1
Teleop36.6
End7.8
blue by 2.2
418
#22
59.72.3
49.9→52.2
Auto14.8
Teleop35.9
End9.1
Third
4364
#35
19.91.5
16.6→18.1
Auto5.8
Teleop12.8
End1.2
blue by 20.9
8177
#11
40.72.3
30.6→32.9
Auto8.0
Teleop24.2
End8.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
37%Coral oddsEarned51%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned