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Qual 312025 FIRST In Texas District Championship - Mercury Division
Red129
461029.4
950635.2
14869.9
Blue134
965823.5
874958.8
384762.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions140139110120130150160170180129134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+23
Endgame+11
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +11
9Leave9
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points21
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +12
14Coral scored#18
52Coral points66
1Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
6Processor points12
24Net points16
30Algae points28
82Total teleop94
Reef
6L4#8
4L3#8
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#28
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
12Foul points6
129Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
148
#2
69.90.5
67.7→67.2
Auto12.7
Teleop49.1
End8.1
red by 7.5
3847
#3
62.40.2
61.3→61.5
Auto13.2
Teleop39.4
End9.9
Second
9506
#33
35.20.5
30.9→30.4
Auto5.8
Teleop24.4
End4.9
blue by 23.7
8749
#9
58.80.2
45.2→45.4
Auto14.3
Teleop34.7
End9.8
Third
4610
#43
29.40.5
25.9→25.4
Auto4.0
Teleop23.3
End2.1
red by 5.9
9658
#41
23.50.2
18.3→18.5
Auto4.7
Teleop18.1
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
38%Coral oddsMissed16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsMissed