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Red169
667252.0
473444.8
874958.8
Blue153
415331.8
271462.7
913735.7
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1431276080100120160180200169153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+34Teleop
+24Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave0
10Coral scored#5
51Coral points26
54Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +6
19Coral scored#19
69Coral points69
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#5
12Processor points6
20Net points20
32Algae points26
101Total teleop95
Reef
10L4#11
7L3#6
6L2#4
6L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
0Foul points8
169Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.82.7
47.049.7
Auto14.3
Teleop34.7
End9.8
blue by 3.9
62.72.1
58.260.3
Auto13.6
Teleop41.9
End7.1
Second
6672
#14
52.02.7
42.745.4
Auto13.5
Teleop34.1
End4.3
red by 16.2
9137
#31
35.72.1
26.929.0
Auto6.3
Teleop26.3
End3.1
Third
4734
#24
44.82.7
39.241.9
Auto8.2
Teleop32.7
End3.8
red by 13.0
4153
#21
31.82.1
28.230.3
Auto4.9
Teleop18.9
End7.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned81%Barge oddsEarned